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Joining VC University, documenting the vibe shift, and the end of unicorns

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What are outcomes, if not merely the result of our intentions and habits?

Genius as Sustained Focus

For the longest time—probably since my days running an artist management company—I’ve been curious about Venture Capital. Back in 2020, I took an HBS online course in Alternative Investments, which provided an overview of the industry. Since then, my interest in how capital is managed and deployed in emerging technology sectors has reached a fever pitch.

 

This year, I’ve enrolled in VC University—a 10-week cohort backed by the National Venture Capital Association offering foundational knowledge, skills, and networks to navigate and succeed in the venture capital ecosystem.

 

I learned about this program after listening to the One Life One Chance podcast featuring Matt Pincus, a prominent entrepreneur, music executive, investor, and bassist for the band Judge. Known for building SONGS Publishing over a decade and selling it to Kobalt for a substantial sum, his story left me reflecting on my own arc.

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Los Angeles Arc

In 2017, I worked with some of the A&R team at SONGS on their last signing—XXXTentacion. Though I never spoke with Matt in his little shop of horrors, the energy of his work ethic was palpable, oozing from his quarters and leaving a lasting impression on me.

 

During that time, I partnered with an A&R analytics company called Sodatone, providing data that guided the XXXTentacion signing. I’d often have calls with Jerry, Sodatone’s founder, in a cafe near Cahuenga Blvd in WeHo, describing the publishing company’s A&R needs for their tech stack. This was when A&R analytics was still fairly new. Jerry eventually sold Sodatone to Warner Music, and the rest is history.

 

In retrospect, I realize I played a significant role in helping Jerry navigate the space. By offering guidance and networks, I saw parallels between my role and that of a GP at a venture firm—catalyzing growth and making key introductions that change a founder’s trajectory.

This realization inspired me to look more closely at venture capital's foundational figures.

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Following intution

Matt’s father, Lionel Pincus, was instrumental in shaping modern venture capital through Warburg Pincus, a founding member of the NVCA. Reflecting on this history, I found a deeper connection between the legacy of early venture pioneers and the emerging technologies reshaping the industry today.

 

An unbeliever in conventional wisdom, I often turn to intuition, trusting cues that align with practical next steps. This instinct has led me to discover the National Venture Capital Assocation, and in turn, guided me to VC University Cohort 18, where I’ve set a moonshot goal: to establish my own vintage fund and secure an anchor investor for my first raise.

 

While I don’t yet have a formal investment thesis, I anticipate that much of what we’ll cover in the program will need to be reframed in the context of the ongoing AI revolution.

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Documenting the vibe shift

The vibe shift is here. Targets for capital deployment are changing fast. More importantly, AI will become the lynchpin for how Venture Capital operates in the second quarter of the 21st century (2026 and beyond)—not to mention the potential use of stablecoins and other DeFi applications that could significantly improve the overall process.

 

To navigate this shift, I’ve started this open journal to learn in public and commit my discoveries to a framework I’m developing—one built for the 21st century, running parallel to traditional VC while embracing emerging technologies and decentralized finance.

 

Some pillars of the framework I’m currently considering:

 

  • AI as a due diligence partner
  • Stablecoins for cross-border LP contributions
  • Governance tokens for community-driven funds
  • ‘Capital-Business Fit’
  • Community 'scenius' incubators for knowledge sharing

Community Insight: Peers are challenging the notion that founders should focus solely on product-market fit. They argue that “capital-business fit” is equally vital, as path-dependency reliant on venture-scale narrative often leads founders to overlook opportunities outside the Unicorn model.

Starting February 3rd, I’ll post regularly, alternating between summarizing and critically analyzing my learnings from VC University and sharing my own postulations about the future of venture capital. The final day of the program is April 14, 2025—I'll make that the deadline for my moonshot goal as well. I’ll document my conversations, updates, and progress toward this goal here.

 

As a supplemental goal, I’ll publish my investment thesis for my proprietary fund. For good measure, I’ll posit a proto-thesis below and share where I believe the overall market is heading, as well as what I think venture capitalists should focus on when executing their own investment theses.

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The Hot Take

With the advent of AI, the race to discover and fund the next Unicorn company has become a red herring. OpenAI and others in its cohort may very well be the last Unicorns of the 21st century. The landscape of innovation is shifting toward decentralized models, smaller-scale ventures, and niche markets emphasizing sustainability (revenue) and community (demand) over hyper-growth and billion-dollar valuations.

 

Enterprise ecosystems are maturing, and AI-driven automation is radically lowering barriers to entry, making specialized capabilities widely accessible. The strategic edge that early Unicorns once held is eroding—smaller rivals can now replicate these capabilities more quickly, while larger incumbents have the capacity to absorb or outcompete emerging technologies before they achieve meaningful scale.

 

A recent example of this can be seen in MoffettNathanson downgrading Apple to a sell. At the time of this writing, Apple’s stock has fallen close to 4% over the past month. Their rationale points to an irrational price point for the stock, which is currently trading at 33 times its earnings and at a premium compared to its peers in the Magnificent Seven, despite the capital efficiency of its AI strategy.

 

Additional headwinds cited include geopolitical risks in China, where local competition is strong and the government remains reticent to allow western LLMs to take root in society. There is also looming antitrust risk, as Apple derives more than 25% of its operating income from payments made by Google. The judge in that antitrust case has already suggested that these payments may be illegal.

 

"There are real risks that are not appropriately discounted in the multiple that Apple is being awarded in the market," they concluded.

 

In light of these developments, I argue that the future of innovation may lie in distributed models and community-owned ventures (DAOs) or niche consumer brands like Teenage Engineering or USB Club, which prioritize sustainability and demand over Unicorn-scale valuations. Success in the future may hinge less on achieving colossal market cap and more on building resilient, community-focused enterprises.

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What's next?

In the coming posts, I’ll explore the evolving landscape of venture capital, critically examining its foundations and identifying opportunities to reshape it for the 21st century. By April 14, 2025, I plan to publish an investment thesis, secure an anchor investor for my vintage fund, and develop a venture framework that prioritizes sustainability and community over the traditional Unicorn-scale narrative.

 

This journey will delve into alternative models where demand and sustainability serve as pillars of success—like Teenage Engineering or USB Club. These ventures demonstrate how smaller, community-driven businesses can thrive in a rapidly changing world, offering a compelling alternative to the conventional growth-at-all-costs approach.

 

Through this open journal, I’m laying bare the process of developing my proto-thesis, channeling intuition and intensity into actionable insights. I want to engage the community on how emerging technologies like AI, stablecoins, and decentralized finance can support ventures rooted in long-term impact.

 

If you’d like to connect, collaborate, or share your own perspectives, you can find me on X. Let’s fund what's missing, together.

   

© Agustín Foundation., 2025. All rights reserved.